What Happened With Minnesota’s Winter Weather The Last Time We Had A Strong El Nino?

Weather experts are saying a strong El Niño is in the cards, set to impact what the winter weather will do in Minnesota in the upcoming 2026-2027 winter season.

The National Weather Service's outlook for the upcoming winter season in Minnesota projects warmer-than-normal temperatures, though precipitation amounts are less certain, with equal chances of more or less than normal or average amounts of precipitation this winter.

With the strong possibility of warmer temperatures, that would suggest a greater likelihood of rain, freezing rain, or mixed precipiation events during storms that roll through Minnesota this winter.

With that being the broad forecast for the upcoming winter season in Minnesota, what happened the last time we had a strong El Niño?

Our last strong El Niño winter was that of 2015-2016, creating some notable differences in our winter weather across Minnesota.

I dug into data for a number of cities across Minnesota to look at what the outcome of that last strong El Niño winter was across the state.

The overall theme of the winter of 2015-2016 fits pretty well with the outlook for our upcoming winter season.

Across Minnesota, every city I looked at saw less snow than normal, with some cities seeing as much as two feet less snow than they normally get. That wasn't the case everywhere around the state. A few cities only saw a relatively slight decrease from what they normally get.

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Similarly, temperatures overall trended warmer than normal across Minnesota, with some season averages as high as 10 degrees warmer than normal. Again, that wasn't true everywhere across Minnesota.

Here's a look at snowfall amounts and temperatures from our last strong El Niño and how those numbers compared to normals. While things can vary from one El Niño to the next, this will give you an idea of the types of impacts it can have.